And that is what impresses at first sight

It is the only light in a black table. However, such as Rembrandt put in the eyes of some of its characters, it does not appear in the moment while it informs the canvas. The terrible "conditions note" published Friday, March 20 by the national Institute of statistics and economic studies (Insee), the single positive point was little noted, no doubt because it contrasts too with the commonly held idea impoverishment of households: purchasing power should still advance in 2009, notwithstanding the exceptional gravity of the crisis. Insee estimated at 0.9 gain overall purchasing power which will be acquired by households in late June: is the pace at which he politically throughout the year in the case of a stagnation in the second half.

The figure is certainly not significant, but to the decimal, it is identical to that of mid-2008, before the economy switches in the crisis. And that is what impresses at first sight. Because the economic panorama brings together many of the ingredients which should contribute to a historic decline in "relative" income of the household: a decline in activity without precedent since the second war world ( 2.9), a record unemployment rising with nearly 300,000 applicants of employment more in six months, a contraction of the mass of remuneration (0.4 in the first half ) which translates as destruction of positions and increased pay rigor in the business.

Less violent than we are, the last recession of the French economy had resulted in a higher deceleration of the purchasing power of households. It grew to 0.6 in 1993 to 0.4 per cent in 1994. That explains that the disposable income of the French is better in 2009 First a partially independent phenomenon of economic policy: the decrease in overall consumer prices. Since summer 2008, said Insee, "the French economy recorded a net movement of disinflation." With an oil 65 cheaper than in July 2008, energy prices would fall, at the end of June, down 20 over a year. A downturn stronger again in the 1986 oil rebound!

But many other products are cheaper than they were a year ago: Auto (for cause), drugs (with generics), fresh food (due to the erosion of agricultural prices)... In the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, disinflation is the main engine of the purchasing power. On a background of controversy about the targeting of economic policy, it is not without interest to note that the Insee still sees the effect bearish margins of large distribution reform, passed last year under the Act of modernisation of the economy. Beyond this one-time impact, the Insee statistics show the financial support to households by public policies, especially from the second quarter.

If, overall, the purchasing power of many this year, is that a massive addition of public income, distributed by the State and social security, to compensate for the decline in income from activity private. "Make-up" inflation in 2008, 2009 family benefits were adjusted by 3 and pensions will be 1 on April 1. What was lost last year comes as a bonus this year. In addition to this the prepayment of the "active solidarity bonus" and the deletion of two thirds of the tax paid by 6 million households. Alone, these two measures advance all of the purchasing power of 0.3 points in the second quarter, calculates Benoît Heitz, head of the Insee economic synthesis.

Statistics Institute does not yet forecast for the second half but two elements will come in the purchasing power of reinforcement: the application of the monthly household tax rebate, and the adjustment of salaries of the public service (0.5 in July and 0.3 in October). Not only purchasing power offers exceptional resistance in times of crisis, but it is social policy as well as disinflation.

Of course, this is not always that in view of the French, who see especially gross revenues erode. And macroeconomics is afraid of another reality than that experienced daily by each French. Indeed, if on the balances by the annual increase in the number of households, the evolution of the power to purchase (by "consumption unit") in the first half of 2009 is barely positive. It has happened that this indicator be just negative on the year (2003, 1996), never as much, however, in 1983 and 1984, as a left-wing President.