17507 to a decline of 12 basis points to 5

In a turbulent international context, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Governor, reached to restart stock markets without anyone really his first objective. It is true that there was helped by the accentuation of the decline in the price of crude oil. In fact, the purpose of Ben Bernanke was to convince the U.S. Senate that further interest rate rises might be still necessary despite the slowdown in growth, while adopting a balanced tone to not worry markets vulnerable and quite depressed. A delicate since exercise an hour before his speech, once again, a statistics on inflation was greater than the expectations of the markets.

This speech to the Senate delivered itself of new major information: the Fed expects so that, finally responding to the multiple interest rates increases in past, growth slow, which will result in less tension on prices. "Even if our baseline scenario table on a moderation of inflation, the Committee considers that there are still some risks", he warned.

The tight labour market

Commenting on the recent rise in inflation, Ben Bernanke also expressed the concern that the Fed, which considers likely also an acceleration of the hourly wage in the next two years, of the fact of a still tense labour market. "vigilance" is thus appropriate, including to contain inflation by market expectations, one of the key elements of the maintenance of the anti-inflationary credibility of the Fed. It believes that inflation should be 2.25-2.50 this year and down between 2 and 2.25 next year. Apparently in the light of their reaction, markets had expected a more aggressive speech on the part of the Governor of the Fed rates.

This speech was in any case a good pretext for catches of profits on the greenback, which had experienced a significant increase since the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East. Thus, was the euro of 1,2490 at 1,2550. The two sides of the Atlantic, bond markets poorly began the day with the announcement, in Germany, an acceleration in the producer price in June to 0.3 and, in the United States, an increase of 0.3 of the price index excluding food and energy in June consumer, then the consensus assumed on a 0.2 gain. Long rates then relaxed abruptly with Bernanke speech and the recoil of the barrel. The French 10-year OAT performance fell 4.02 to 3.99, while the performance of the US Treasury 10-year loan fell 5.17-5,07 to a decline of 12 basis points to 5.12 of the rate to 2 years. This American long rates retreat is in any case counterproductive for the Fed, since it is a long yields increase which is needed to cool the economy.

Recovery to confirm

The reaction and the relief of the awards was perhaps to the extent of their excessive pessimism and their great sluggishness since the beginning of their correction in May. Upcoming sessions will confirm or not if this is the beginning of a real recovery or a simple epidermal reaction. The CAC 40 index jumped 2.37, to 4.846,54 points, the British Futsee index gained 1.69, to 5.778 points, and the German DAX, 2.64, to 5.539,29 points. This effect Bernanke will be both sustainable and sufficient to reverse the "curse of Halloween" Indeed, on the stock exchanges, the period from early May to early November saves yields far below those of the current period from late October to late April. This surprising seasonal effect, called "Halloween effect" is a phenomenon found on most of the markets be they developed or emerging (). This feature is particularly marked in the European places. On the Continent and over a long period, the performance of the shares over the period from May to late October rarely exceeds 2, while it is more than 8 in all European countries studied during the next period. Wall Street follows also this rule, with superior winter performance by an average of more than 5 to its summer performance.