In the Middle East only 1 wants to venture

Real estate euphoria years led the banks to lend to all is going to finance the acquisition of assets at sometimes speculative prices. Problem: the time of the refund does not delay sound. The European real estate sector currently deploys under 970 billion euros of debt, of which half is due in three years (more than 160 billion this year).

Most importantly, this total includes 207 billion of debts related to goods of poor quality, funded with a lever of high debt and the repayment will be a real problem, according to estimates of the real estate board CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). Made public yesterday in the Mipim, the show brings together the global players in the sector in Cannes until Friday (read record pages 21-28), this report shows the problems focus on Britain (34 of the total European debt) and Germany (24). It does not provide for a massive influx of sales forced assets at low prices.

Banks will not be able to bring these debts forever but have step interest to retrieve property for sale in noting the passage of the massive losses in a depressed market. "The banks will sell if the goods are of quality, either, otherwise, they refrain to not record losses and refinanceront debt." "There will be therefore sales forced but not to the point of the market", said Nick Axford, responsible for Europe in CBRE Research. The sector is currently creating many funds specializing in "opportunities" (a new term discreet to designate assets in distress), but for the moment, these funds "vultures" scrutinize the horizon in vain.

In France, "distress sales remain limited." "Apart from an Office Tower at la Villette, retrieved by its two creditor banks, was observed only marginal sales of some assets rehabilitated on the outskirts of defence", said Antoine Derville, at CBRE.

"Irrational fear of inflation."

-Side investors, the quest for low asset is not the only current feature of the market. The economic crisis makes uncertain the future value of the offices and shops except those of high quality, but on this narrow segment, tributary capital. "There are currently an irrational fear of inflation and private investors are seeking tertiary housing for protection," notes Barbara Knoflach, leading SEB Asset Management, one of the major German real estate investment funds with 20 billion euros of assets under management. Moreover, and this is new, these capital come from around the world: today is liquidity from Asia, including China, South Africa, the Middle East... "If they focus all assets and markets the most prominent, this will be a problem", including a competing in price.

Indeed, 270 European investors surveyed by CBRE reveal that the incursions on emerging markets are no longer news: 60 want priority to focus on Europe this year, and 31 more specifically on Britain. London is currently the only European recording a very net offices price recovery. As many investors (18) are betting on the one hand on a recovery in Germany and the other for the France. In the end, although Asia zone having registered the upturn, it attempts to 21 of investors, and the United States, who do not see the end of the slump, attract only 12 of the polled. In the Middle East, only 1 wants to venture. The market is groping at risk of wandering and bubbles threaten again, despite the fall in rents and the rise of the vacancy at the same time to the thrust of the unemployment rate.

The review of CBRE lesechos.fr/documentslesechos.fr/documents