Since then the companies shake the screw

Half a century ago, Jacques Brel sang the waltz to a thousand times, that "lovers only offer three hundred thirty-three times the time to build a novel". Today or rather tomorrow, Barack Obama will start to dance a waltz to 1,000 billion which only gives the hope of recovery. But this round of billion also form a cloud of fog that forget its point of departure: the decline of the American economy. What is really the first world power at the point where its forty-fourth President access to his head What looks like its economic dashboard

First evidence: it is an economy that moves, and a year. Believe the National Bureau of Economic Research, said as the US recession in December 2007. Always criticized but still useful indicator, GDP, a nearby story. In the third quarter of 2008, the last known, gross domestic product (all of the wealth produced in the country) was just 0.7 to its level a year earlier. The figure for the last quarter, published at the end of next week, is likely to be very bad. Forecasters suggest a decline of 1, the strongest decline since 1982. The bad signs accumulate. In three months, companies have destroyed more than 1.5 million jobs. Industrial production was down 5.5 over a year. The immediate future looks plugged.

Second evidence: is real estate which is now more poorly. The explosion of the bubble has not finished to feel its effects. In a year, the money spent by Americans in their housing investments fell by 20. Housing starts dropped by 47. Despite this severe decline in the offer, needed almost a year to sell now available new homes. These stocks weighed on prices, which slacken. At the time, Americans are more likely to have a real estate debt greater than the price of their house. This scissors effect is crucial. On the one hand, it encourages owners to give up their homes. The housing stock for sale monte, which is still lower prices. By selling the houses seized to loss, banks swell their losses. On the other hand, real estate had become in recent years the piggy bank from the Americans. They heavily borrowed money pledge on the increase in the value of their homes. This mechanics there is broken. The Americans now reduce their debt, which had jumped from 12 months of income in 2000 to 17 months early 2008. At the time, consumption drops in turn. The retail sales decline six months. The consumption fell by 1 during the summer.

With these two flat tires, activity and real estate, there was until this two wheels of relief. The first was the business investment, which had again increased by 5 in 2007. But there is a blow to brake early 2008, then a break in the middle of the year. Since then, the companies shake the screw. Manufacturers saw their sales prospects deteriorate, their bankers become more suspicious, ridden profits among others by a prices of their raw materials difficult to pass to the customer in such a slump. Therefore, there is not much hope of their investments in the coming months, as the bankruptcies of small and large companies are likely to multiply. The second spare wheel was the trade that brought him only 1.5 growth in 2008. But, also, the next few months to announce little pleasing, both because the dollar strengthened and that the situation is deteriorating around the world.

Conclusion: Barack Obama took power at the worst time has seen the US economy since the 1930s. Evidenced by indicators which had never retreated since their inception: confidence of patterns (calculated since 1976) and the Conference Board household (1967), prices index ISM of the morale of the purchasers of the industry and consumption (calculated both since 1947). The new President must begin by finding the means to seal gaps of debt, both from individuals, banks and other businesses. As long as these breccias remain fresh, all money spent elsewhere will be lost in the sand. Then, should support the demand. And then to tackle the structural problems of the country, such as health and a public debt that will be exploded. Four years, it's going to seem short, especially after two Presidents who have past each eight years to the joysticks.