Supported by an unexpected fall in stocks of 4

The year may be better than expected for the tankers. This is ten days, all the majors of the sector saw their quarterly results to collapse, with decreases in the order of 60 for Shell, BP or ExxonMobil. Penalized by the fall of oil prices and the decline in world demand, big oil companies have therefore prepared for a difficult year and have multiplied the projects reports in recent months. The net increase of prices since April could provide unexpected leeway and encourage them to invest despite all major projects are profitable with a dear barrel, for example in non-conventional oil.

Fallen below $ 35 in December and February, the price of oil soared by 10 last week crossed the bar 60 dollars Tuesday in a meeting for the first time in six months. Supported by an unexpected fall in stocks of 4.7 million barrels, the price of "light sweet crude" was first yesterday made progress in meeting before ter-

undermine fell 83 cents to 58,02 dollars in New York. In London, a barrel of brent gave 60 cents, to $ 57,34.

These fluctuations are heavy consequences for the oil majors. The number one sector, ExxonMobil, considers that a variation of 1 dollar of the average price of oil has an impact of $ 375 million on the results of its exploration-production activity. Same observation in Total: each assessment of 1 dollar per barrel of brent leads to an increase of EUR 150 million of its adjusted net income (with a hypothesis of euro at 1.3 dollars in 2009). Excluding the effect of stocks and exceptionals, the French oil tanker cleared a profit of EUR 2.1 billion in the first quarter on the basis of a price of a barrel of brent to 44.5 $. If the course stabilized at $ 60 in the second quarter, Total could double its quarterly profit by early 2009 report, to approach the 4.5 billion euros.

The short term, this good news will however have a limited impact. "The increase in the price of a barrel will strengthen the defensive aspect of oil values, but it will change nothing to their immediate behavior," said one Paris analyst.

Lengthy process

In particular, ask for the major companies to lift the foot on their cost reduction programmes be safe to have benefited in full of the decline in the price of cement, steel and transportation. At the opening of the terminal for liquefied natural gas to South Hook to Wales Tuesday, Total and ExxonMobil leaders reaffirmed the need for a decrease in the prices of their suppliers.

For the French oil tanker, they must at least return to the level of 2006. "If it is legitimate to build on a rebound in the price of oil in the future, we cannot accept that our providers can tell us:" gentlemen, look a little, because in two or three years, the context will be much better for us all "", explained the Director General of Total, Christophe de Margerie.

Report of the calls for tenders, renegotiation of the existing contracts, redefinition of their perimeter... After seeing the project costs increase by 80 in four years, the oil companies do exclude no way to find budgets suitable for 50-60 dollars a barrel. "We want to be sure to maintain the viability of our providers in the long term," assured the pattern of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson. To do this, majors intend to obtain reductions in price of 20, 30, even 40 in some cases. Long-term, this process may nonetheless take twelve to eighteen months to decline throughout the chain.

On that date, barrel of oil will probably significantly increased. On average, analysts as investors rely on continuation of the rising prices. On the futures market, the barrel of WTI negotiates thus 73 $ $ for delivery in 2012. Analysts, they see the barrel to 95 dollars in the same period.